Title Date Author(s) Publication Notes
Comparative Assessment of the EU and US Policy Frameworks to Promote Low-Carbon Fuels in Aviation and Shipping September 2024 Pierpaolo Cazzola, Colin Murphy, Laedon Kang, Jin Wook Ro, Christoph Wolff, Jacob Teter
Updated Fuel Portfolio Scenario Modeling to Inform 2024 Low Carbon Fuel Standard Rulemaking February 2024 Colin Murphy, Jin Wook Ro
Fuel Portfolio Scenario Modeling (FPSM) of 2030 and 2035 Low CarbonFuel Standard Targets in California November 2023 Jin Wook Ro, Colin Murphy, Qian Wang
Aviation Fuels – Exploring Low Carbon Options Under Current Policy July 2023 Julie Witcover, Colin Murphy
Low-Carbon Fuels for Aviation and Maritime Transport: Insights from Two Mirroring Workshops Held in the US and Europe May 2023 Pierpaolo Cazzola, Colin Murphy
Improving Credit Quantification Under the LCFS: The Case for a Fractional Displacement Approach December 2022 Colin Murphy
Fractional Displacement Crediting Under the LCFS December 2022 Colin Murphy
Modeling 2030 LCFS Targets December 2022 Colin Murphy
What to Make of Biofuels? Understanding the Market from 2010 to the Present, and Projecting Ahead to 2030 Given Current Policies April 2022 Julie Witcover A research team at the University of California, Davis examined the track record of the past decade for clues as to why this happened, and looked forward to 2030 to point to how current policies are likely to still fall short in delivering low-carbon biofuels that can reach scales needed for these hard-to-decarbonize sectors. The findings highlight barriers to low-carbon biofuel development that would safeguard against unintended consequences such as additional emissions from land use changes or higher food prices that can come from competition with the use of crops for fuel.
What Happened and Will Happen with Biofuels? Review and Prospects for Non-Conventional Biofuels in California and the U.S.: Supply, Cost, and Potential GHG Reductions December 2021 Julie Witcover This paper examines past and future trends for non-conventional biofuels in transportation in the next decade and beyond in California and the U.S., drawing on existing literature. It finds policy was geared toward expanding use of technology-ready biofuels in the 2010s; hydroprocessed renewable diesel from lipid feedstocks and biogas were beneficiaries alongside conventional ethanol and biodiesel.
Climate and transportation policy sequencing in California and Quebec August 2021 M. Purdon, J. Witcover, C. Murphy, S. Ziaja, M. Winfield, G. Giuliano, C. Séguin, C. Kaiser, J. Papy, L. Fulton This article compares flexible low-carbon regulations in the transportation sector and their interaction and sequencing with greenhouse gas emissions trading systems in California and Quebec.
Multijurisdictional Status Review of Low Carbon Fuel Standards, 2010–2020 Q2 July 2021 Daniel Mazzone, Colin Murphy, Julie Witcover This LCFS status report is the latest in a series of updates based on program metrics. It focuses on the programs in the Pacific Coast Collaborative (PCC) jurisdictions of California, Oregon, and BC, and covers 2010 through 2020 Q2 (the most recent data available at the time of writing).
The End of Neutrality? LCFS, Technology Neutrality, and Stimulating the Electric Vehicle Market July 2021 James Bushnell, Erich Muehlegger, David Rapson, Julie Witcover Analysis of policy options for expanding the EV market, with a particular focus on how EVs are treated in the LCFS, typically positioned as “technology neutral,” for cross-comparisons with other (including liquid) fuels with respect to life-cycle carbon intensity (CI) and subsequent revenue flowing toward the EV market in California, how far that support could take the state towards its electrification goals, and with what tension with the technology neutrality design principle.
Driving California's Transportation Emissions to Zero April 2021 Austin L. Brown, Daniel Sperling, Bernadette Austin, Jr DeShazo, Lew Fulton, Timothy Lipman, Colin Murphy, Jean-Daniel Saphores, Gil Tal Research-driven analysis of options that can put California on a pathway to achieve carbon-neutral transportation by 2045.
Oregon’s Clean Fuels Program: A Review and Status Update December 2020 Julie Witcover, Colin Murphy Building on an April 2019 Research Report (see below), this article synthesizes and explores early years of Oregon's Clean Fuels Program (CFP based on program data, and discusses similarities and differences with California's LCFS policy design and early year performance.
Improving Data Reporting for State Renewable Portfolio Standards August 2020 Ingrid Behrsin, Olivia Zanzonico, Johanna Heyer, Alejandro Prieto, Francesca Disano Policy brief presenting two simple strategies for improving state-level Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPSs) data reporting.
Improving Data Reporting for State Renewable Portfolio Standards August 2020 Ingrid Behrsin, Olivia Zanzonico, Johanna Heyer, Alejandro Prieto, Francesca Disano Policy brief presenting two simple strategies for improving state-level Renewable Portfolio Standards data reporting.
Uncertainty, Innovation, and Infrastructure Credits: Outlook for the Low Carbon Fuel Standard Through 2030 February 2020 James Bushnell, Daniel Mazzone, Aaron Smith, Julie Witcover California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) specifies that the state’s transportation fuel supply achieve a 20% reduction in carbon intensity (CI) below 2011 levels by 2030. Reaching the standard will require substantive changes in the fuel mix, but the specifics and the cost of these changes are uncertain. The report assesses if and how California is likely to achieve the standard, and the likely impact of infrastructure credits on this compliance outlook.
Comparison of “Advanced” Biofuel Cost Estimates: Trends during rollout of low carbon fuel policies. February 2020 Witcover, J., Williams, R. B. Costs of producing “advanced” biofuels (those with the lowest GHG and land use impacts) have not decreased in recent years as envisioned by analysts. Despite aggressive policy incentives, no transition to a lower cost mature industry has occurred. This paper reviews literature on production cost at the plantgate – without considering taxes or delivery costs – for selected biofuel technology pathways using a levelized cost of fuel approach, applying common financing assumptions for capital amortization and converting all values to year 2016 dollars, and examines results in the current low carbon fuel policy context.
Status Review of Oregon’s Clean Fuels Program, 2016–2018 Q3 (Revised Version) April 2019 Julie Witcover, Colin Murphy Research report reviewing Oregon's Clean Fuels Program (CFP) data from the first three years of CFP operation, including an overview of program characteristics, identification of key trends, and comparison of the CFP to LCFS.
Biofuel Tracker: Capacity for Low Carbon Fuel Policies – Assessment through 2018. June 2017 Witcover, J., Williams, R. B. This Biofuel Tracker: Capacity for Low Carbon Fuel Policies – Assessment through 2018 report follows the discontinued annual Advanced Biofuel Market Report produced by E2. The report provides information on market plans for near‐term production capacity through 2018. It is one indication of potential North American production of fuel volume that meets the California carbon intensity rating cut‐off in the next couple of years, given favorable market conditions and the current policy environment.
A Review of Low Carbon Fuel Policies: Principles, Program Status and Future Directions. October 2016 Sonia Yeh, Julie Witcover, Gabriel E. Lade, Daniel Sperling A low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) is a market-based policy that specifies declining standards for the average lifecycle fuel carbon intensity (AFCI) of transportation fuels sold in a region. This paper: (i) compares transportation fuel carbon policies in terms of their economic efficiency, fuel price impacts, greenhouse gas emission reductions, and incentives for innovation; (ii) discusses key regulatory design features of LCFS policies; and (iii) provides an update on the implementation status of LCFS policies in California, the European Union, British Columbia, and Oregon.
Three Routes Forward for Biofuels: Incremental, Leapfrog, and Transitional January 2016 Geoff M. Morrison, Julie Witcover, Nathan C. Parker, Lew Fulton This paper examines three technology routes for lowering the carbon intensity of biofuels: (1) a leapfrog route that focuses on major technological breakthroughs in lignocellulosic pathways at new, stand-alone biorefineries; (2) an incremental route in which improvements are made to existing U.S. corn ethanol and soybean biodiesel biorefineries; and (3) a transitional route in which biotechnology firms gain experience growing, handling, or chemically converting lignocellulosic biomass in a lower-risk fashion than leapfrog biorefineries by leveraging existing capital stock.
Carbon Accounting and Economic Model Uncertainty of Emissions from Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change January 2015 Richard J. Plevin, Jayson Beckman, Alla A. Golub, Julie Witcover, Michael O’Hare Few of the numerous published studies of the emissions from biofuels-induced “indirect” land use change (ILUC) attempt to propagate and quantify uncertainty, and those that have done so have restricted their analysis to a portion of the modeling systems used. In this study, we pair a global, computable general equilibrium model with a model of greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change to quantify the parametric uncertainty in the paired modeling system’s estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from ILUC induced by expanded production of three biofuels.
Comparison of supply and demand constraints on U.S. biofuel expansion December 2014 Geoff Morrison, Nathan Parker, Julie Witcover, Lewis Fulton, Yu Pei This article explores supply and demand constraints on the U.S. ramp-up of biofuels, including potential supply impacts by 2030 of build-out of commercial-scale cellulosic biorefineries, incremental improvements to existing ethanol and biodiesel biorefineries, and use of waste oils for renewable diesel and biodiesel, and impact on potential demand from infrastructure and vehicles to allow ethanol blends beyond E10.
Comparison of Supply and Demand Constraints on U.S. Biofuel Expansion December 2014 Geoff M. Morrison, Nathan C. Parker, Julie Witcover, Lewis M. Fulton, Yu Pei This paper compares supply and demand constraints on the ramp-up of biofuels in the United States. Three recent supply-side developments are assessed: (1) build-out of commercial-scale cellulosic biorefineries, (2) incremental improvements to existing ethanol and biodiesel biorefineries, and (3) use of waste oils for renewable diesel and biodiesel.
Policy options to address global land use change from biofuels May 2013 Julie Witcover, Sonia Yeh, Daniel Sperling The article analyzes existing policy approaches toward biofuel-induced land use change, including a summary of GHG emission estimates used for policy, and suggests a mix of strategies to mitigate uncertainties and risks -- promote less land-reliant feedstocks; reduce land use change risk for feedstocks that use land, and encourage investment in land productivity and environmental protection.
Policy Options for Addressing Global Land Use Change in Biofuel Policy May 2013 Julie Witcover, Sonia Yeh, Daniel Sperling The use of biofuels can increase land competition, leading to global land use change (LUC). LUC poses risks such as increased greenhouse gas emissions and food prices. The magnitude of the risk is uncertain, but could be significant. Given these uncertainties and risks, we suggest that policymakers pursue a mix of the following three strategies: (1) promote feedstocks that rely less on land; (2) reduce LUC risk for land-using feedstocks; and (3) stimulate investments that increase land productivity and environmental protection.
Status Review Reports/Papers August 2011 Sonia Yeh, Julie Witcover, and Others Beginning in August 2011, this periodic status review series provides updates on LCFS compliance and markets, and addresses selected special topics. Each report reviews data, analyzes trends, and identifies potential challenges. Issues have been published in 2011, 2013, 2014 (2), 2015, 2016, 2018.
Low carbon fuel standards: Implementation scenarios and challenges November 2010 Sonia Yeh, Daniel Sperling The article examines LCFS policy efficacy and challenges including leakage and shuffling of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, impacts on energy security, increased GHG emissions due to global land use conversion (indirect land use changes), and biofuel production sustainability. Mitigating complementary policies are discussed.
A Low-Carbon Fuel Standard for California Part 2: Policy Analysis August 2007 Alexander Farrell, Daniel Sperling The LCFS can play a major role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and stimulating improvements in transportation fuel technologies so that California can meet its climate policy goals. In Part 1 of this study we evaluated the technical feasibility of achieving a 10 percent reduction in the carbon intensity (measured in gCO2e/MJ) of transportation fuels in California by 2020. We identified six scenarios based on a variety of different technologies that could meet or exceed this goal, and concluded that the goal was ambitious but attainable. In Part 2, we examine many of the specific policy issues needed to achieve this ambitious target.
A Low-Carbon Fuel Standard for California Part 1: Technical Analysis May 2007 Alexander Farrell, Daniel Sperling, and Others This report is the first of two by the University of California in response to Executive Order S-1-07, the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) (January 18, 2007), which calls for a reduction of at least 10 percent in the carbon intensity of California’s transportation fuels by 2020. This first study assesses the low-carbon fuels options that might be used to meet the proposed standard, and presents a number of scenarios for mixes of fuels that might meet a 5, 10, and 15 percent standard.