Title Date Author(s) Publication Notes Publication Type
Fuel Portfolio Scenario Modeling (FPSM) of 2030 and 2035 Low CarbonFuel Standard Targets in California November 2023 Jin Wook Ro, Colin Murphy, Qian Wang Research Report
Aviation Fuels – Exploring Low Carbon Options Under Current Policy July 2023 Julie Witcover, Colin Murphy White Paper
Low-Carbon Fuels for Aviation and Maritime Transport: Insights from Two Mirroring Workshops Held in the US and Europe May 2023 Pierpaolo Cazzola, Colin Murphy Research Report
Improving Credit Quantification Under the LCFS: The Case for a Fractional Displacement Approach December 2022 Colin Murphy Research Report
Fractional Displacement Crediting Under the LCFS December 2022 Colin Murphy Policy Brief
Modeling 2030 LCFS Targets December 2022 Colin Murphy Policy Brief
The End of Neutrality? LCFS, Technology Neutrality, and Stimulating the Electric Vehicle Market July 2021 James Bushnell, Erich Muehlegger, David Rapson, Julie Witcover Analysis of policy options for expanding the EV market, with a particular focus on how EVs are treated in the LCFS, typically positioned as “technology neutral,” for cross-comparisons with other (including liquid) fuels with respect to life-cycle carbon intensity (CI) and subsequent revenue flowing toward the EV market in California, how far that support could take the state towards its electrification goals, and with what tension with the technology neutrality design principle. Research Report
Multijurisdictional Status Review of Low Carbon Fuel Standards, 2010–2020 Q2 July 2021 Daniel Mazzone, Colin Murphy, Julie Witcover This LCFS status report is the latest in a series of updates based on program metrics. It focuses on the programs in the Pacific Coast Collaborative (PCC) jurisdictions of California, Oregon, and BC, and covers 2010 through 2020 Q2 (the most recent data available at the time of writing). Research Report
Driving California's Transportation Emissions to Zero April 2021 Austin L. Brown, Daniel Sperling, Bernadette Austin, Jr DeShazo, Lew Fulton, Timothy Lipman, Colin Murphy, Jean-Daniel Saphores, Gil Tal Research-driven analysis of options that can put California on a pathway to achieve carbon-neutral transportation by 2045. Research Report
Oregon’s Clean Fuels Program: A Review and Status Update December 2020 Julie Witcover, Colin Murphy Building on an April 2019 Research Report (see below), this article synthesizes and explores early years of Oregon's Clean Fuels Program (CFP based on program data, and discusses similarities and differences with California's LCFS policy design and early year performance. Journal Article
Improving Data Reporting for State Renewable Portfolio Standards August 2020 Ingrid Behrsin, Olivia Zanzonico, Johanna Heyer, Alejandro Prieto, Francesca Disano Policy brief presenting two simple strategies for improving state-level Renewable Portfolio Standards data reporting. Policy Brief
Uncertainty, Innovation, and Infrastructure Credits: Outlook for the Low Carbon Fuel Standard Through 2030 February 2020 James Bushnell, Daniel Mazzone, Aaron Smith, Julie Witcover California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) specifies that the state’s transportation fuel supply achieve a 20% reduction in carbon intensity (CI) below 2011 levels by 2030. Reaching the standard will require substantive changes in the fuel mix, but the specifics and the cost of these changes are uncertain. The report assesses if and how California is likely to achieve the standard, and the likely impact of infrastructure credits on this compliance outlook. Research Report
Comparison of “Advanced” Biofuel Cost Estimates: Trends during rollout of low carbon fuel policies. February 2020 Witcover, J., Williams, R. B. Costs of producing “advanced” biofuels (those with the lowest GHG and land use impacts) have not decreased in recent years as envisioned by analysts. Despite aggressive policy incentives, no transition to a lower cost mature industry has occurred. This paper reviews literature on production cost at the plantgate – without considering taxes or delivery costs – for selected biofuel technology pathways using a levelized cost of fuel approach, applying common financing assumptions for capital amortization and converting all values to year 2016 dollars, and examines results in the current low carbon fuel policy context. Journal Article
Status Review of Oregon’s Clean Fuels Program, 2016–2018 Q3 (Revised Version) April 2019 Julie Witcover, Colin Murphy Research report reviewing Oregon's Clean Fuels Program (CFP) data from the first three years of CFP operation, including an overview of program characteristics, identification of key trends, and comparison of the CFP to LCFS. Research Report
Biofuel Tracker: Capacity for Low Carbon Fuel Policies – Assessment through 2018. June 2017 Witcover, J., Williams, R. B. This Biofuel Tracker: Capacity for Low Carbon Fuel Policies – Assessment through 2018 report follows the discontinued annual Advanced Biofuel Market Report produced by E2. The report provides information on market plans for near‐term production capacity through 2018. It is one indication of potential North American production of fuel volume that meets the California carbon intensity rating cut‐off in the next couple of years, given favorable market conditions and the current policy environment. Research Report
A Review of Low Carbon Fuel Policies: Principles, Program Status and Future Directions. October 2016 Sonia Yeh, Julie Witcover, Gabriel E. Lade, Daniel Sperling A low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) is a market-based policy that specifies declining standards for the average lifecycle fuel carbon intensity (AFCI) of transportation fuels sold in a region. This paper: (i) compares transportation fuel carbon policies in terms of their economic efficiency, fuel price impacts, greenhouse gas emission reductions, and incentives for innovation; (ii) discusses key regulatory design features of LCFS policies; and (iii) provides an update on the implementation status of LCFS policies in California, the European Union, British Columbia, and Oregon. Journal Article
Three Routes Forward for Biofuels: Incremental, Leapfrog, and Transitional January 2016 Geoff M. Morrison, Julie Witcover, Nathan C. Parker, Lew Fulton This paper examines three technology routes for lowering the carbon intensity of biofuels: (1) a leapfrog route that focuses on major technological breakthroughs in lignocellulosic pathways at new, stand-alone biorefineries; (2) an incremental route in which improvements are made to existing U.S. corn ethanol and soybean biodiesel biorefineries; and (3) a transitional route in which biotechnology firms gain experience growing, handling, or chemically converting lignocellulosic biomass in a lower-risk fashion than leapfrog biorefineries by leveraging existing capital stock. Journal Article
Comparison of supply and demand constraints on U.S. biofuel expansion December 2014 Geoff Morrison, Nathan Parker, Julie Witcover, Lewis Fulton, Yu Pei This article explores supply and demand constraints on the U.S. ramp-up of biofuels, including potential supply impacts by 2030 of build-out of commercial-scale cellulosic biorefineries, incremental improvements to existing ethanol and biodiesel biorefineries, and use of waste oils for renewable diesel and biodiesel, and impact on potential demand from infrastructure and vehicles to allow ethanol blends beyond E10. Journal Article
Policy options to address global land use change from biofuels May 2013 Julie Witcover, Sonia Yeh, Daniel Sperling The article analyzes existing policy approaches toward biofuel-induced land use change, including a summary of GHG emission estimates used for policy, and suggests a mix of strategies to mitigate uncertainties and risks -- promote less land-reliant feedstocks; reduce land use change risk for feedstocks that use land, and encourage investment in land productivity and environmental protection. Journal Article
Status Review Reports/Papers August 2011 Sonia Yeh, Julie Witcover, and Others Beginning in August 2011, this periodic status review series provides updates on LCFS compliance and markets, and addresses selected special topics. Each report reviews data, analyzes trends, and identifies potential challenges. Issues have been published in 2011, 2013, 2014 (2), 2015, 2016, 2018. Research Reports
Low carbon fuel standards: Implementation scenarios and challenges November 2010 Sonia Yeh, Daniel Sperling The article examines LCFS policy efficacy and challenges including leakage and shuffling of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, impacts on energy security, increased GHG emissions due to global land use conversion (indirect land use changes), and biofuel production sustainability. Mitigating complementary policies are discussed. Journal Article
A Low-Carbon Fuel Standard for California Part 2: Policy Analysis August 2007 Alexander Farrell, Daniel Sperling The LCFS can play a major role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and stimulating improvements in transportation fuel technologies so that California can meet its climate policy goals. In Part 1 of this study we evaluated the technical feasibility of achieving a 10 percent reduction in the carbon intensity (measured in gCO2e/MJ) of transportation fuels in California by 2020. We identified six scenarios based on a variety of different technologies that could meet or exceed this goal, and concluded that the goal was ambitious but attainable. In Part 2, we examine many of the specific policy issues needed to achieve this ambitious target. Research Report
A Low-Carbon Fuel Standard for California Part 1: Technical Analysis May 2007 Alexander Farrell, Daniel Sperling, and Others This report is the first of two by the University of California in response to Executive Order S-1-07, the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) (January 18, 2007), which calls for a reduction of at least 10 percent in the carbon intensity of California’s transportation fuels by 2020. This first study assesses the low-carbon fuels options that might be used to meet the proposed standard, and presents a number of scenarios for mixes of fuels that might meet a 5, 10, and 15 percent standard. Research Report